Model creator says '90% chance' BTC never dips below $11K again

The author behind a valuation model for Bitcoin that's based on Metcalfe's Law says the crypto asset will likely be priced around $12,000 by the end of November and reach $1 million within a decade.

In an Oct. 11 Twitter thread, Timothy Peterson, Global Macro Manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, said there is "90% chance that Bitcoin will never again close below $11K." Disclaimer: While he's deadly serious, the prediction recalls the oft stated meme about the "Last chance" to buy Bitcoin under $10K, which has frequently been proven wrong.

This might be the last chance to buy bitcoin under $10,000.

The recorded price of Bitcoin was $7,243 on that day.

Bitcoin's supply is easily ascertainable - more than 18.5 million coins as of this writing - and Peterson believes demand can be measured by the number of BTC wallets.

In Bitcoin's case, the price would be proportional to the square of the number of connected users holding coins on the blockchain.

Erson's "Lowest price forward" model is a competitor to the most popular Bitcoin valuation model, stock-to-flow, created by Crypto Twitter user PlanB, that predicts a Bitcoin price of $288,000 by the next halving.

"There are many reasons why the price of Bitcoin can rise or fall," said Morris.

Despite their differences, both price prediction models see a bullish future for Bitcoin.

"You'll see some amazing things happen with Bitcoin in 2021," said Peterson.